2016 Election Analysis: Trump Pivots, Johnson Gets a Bump


As part of our ongoing coverage of the 2016 elections, Networked Insights continues to analyze an audience of 53K social media users who represent the 40% of voters who self-identify as moderate, independent, or undecided – using our analytics platform Kairos to help better understand their affinities, key issues, how they consume media and more.

Returning to the Moderates

In our initial analysis, we found that moderates were far more politically engaged than the average consumer, and as we return to this important audience, we find that moderates are still very much in tune with current events and the political landscape. In comparison to the rest of the social web, they’re 6.2x more engaged with the presidential election in general, and 8.8x more engaged with healthcare law discussions.

They’re much less engaged with discussing sporting events, comedies, and dramas, as compared to the general consumer, and continued to engage with political figures and journalists – as an example, the audience is 39.8x more engaged with blogger and columnist Ezra Klein.

issuesmodWhat They’re Talking About

As the polls show an increasingly widening lead by Clinton in battleground states, Donald Trump’s new Campaign Manager Kellyanne Conway recently told Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly that Trump would be “pivoting towards substance” in the remaining days of his campaign, promising that Trump would be focused on the issues that matter most to voters.

We’re pretty sure Conway’s not talking about Trump Steaks, so which issues should he be focused on?

Similar to our initial analysis, Immigration continues to drive the most conversation (32%) amongst political moderates on the social web.  Terrorism overtook Healthcare as the second-most discussed issue by Political Moderates (29%), though it’s the #1 issue currently being discussed by the general consumer.

issuestrumpWho’s owning those conversations?

Immigration continues to drive a majority of Moderates’ conversations in conjunction with Trump (46%), with a major spike in conversation recently after Trump announced he’d create a test for immigrants to take gauging their “American Values.”

Political moderates continue to discuss Clinton in the context of Terrorism (28%).  Notably, their discussions around Clinton and Immigration also spiked on 8/15 as claims surfaced that she would increase the flow of refugees into the U.S.

Both candidates are driving conversations on terrorism and immigration, though it appear Trump’s focus may be more honed in to those issues.

The Libertarian Factor
Moderates continue to become more engaged with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson compared to the general consumer – showing a growing affinity from 15x the general consumer last week to 17x this week.

Whether because of growing interest in his campaign or because of general distaste for the major party candidates, Johnson does appear to be making headway among his core constituency.


Stay Tuned
Networked Insights will continue to monitor the conversation around the 2016 elections, including ongoing data around the massive moderate middle audience.

Want to learn more about how you can identify the right audience, develop the right content and get the right results for your next big campaign? Contact Networked Insights to learn more today.