When it Comes to Picking NFL Winners, Women Rule

Today’s Wall Street Journal featured Networked Insights’ analysis of Audi’s ad for the 2017 Super Bowl. The ad tackles the gender gap in pay equity – a major topic during the 2016 Presidential Debates and a key talking point during the Women’s March on Washington a few weeks ago.

Networked Insights’ analysis of the ad is just one part of Networked Insights coverage of Super Bowl 51, as we’ll be gathering and analyzing data throughout the big event for our 2017 Super Bowl Ads Report, to be released on Monday. Click here to sign up to receive the report.

While we’re on the subject of the Super Bowl, for the past three years we’ve predicted the game’s winner using online conversations as a predictive indicator. But in picking this year’s likely winner, we decided to look at the data a little closer – and what we found is likely to make fans of Audi’s big Super Bowl ad cheer.

Women are better are predicting the outcome of NFL games

In order to determine potential predictors of the 2017 Super Bowl winner, we looked at online conversations around this year’s playoff games. For each game we analyzed all the tweets in the week leading up to the game. The winner of the game was simply predicted by taking the team who the majority of people expressed was going to win.

What we found was that, surprisingly, women were far more accurate in their predictions. For example, during the 2016 playoffs, the only two games where the majority of the women were wrong were the Oakland-Houston and Green Bay-Dallas game.

Digging deeper, we analyzed 195,000 emotionally-driven conversations on Twitter for all playoff games during the past 3 years, and found that in predicting the winners, men were correct only 60% of the time, while women were correct nearly 80% of the time.

Women Speak: Who’s Winning Super Bowl 51?

Last year, it was reported that 80 percent of women in the U.S. watched Super Bowl , with 75% liking the commercials and 57% reportedly liking and paying attention to the game.

So who do they think will win the big game? thisgirllovesIt’s a clear win for the Patriots, with 12,000 more conversations leading up the game pointing to a Pats win. In fact, in no other game that we analyzed this year has there been such a big difference between how women felt about one team vs. the other.

The only other playoff game that had that much difference was the Patriots-Houston game in which the Patriots covered a 16-point spread.

Of course, women’s opinion obviously depends on what state they are from. The map below does show that we do live in #patriotsnation and that #falconspride only reaches a handful of states.

Women’s Pick to Win the Super Bowl Across the US

womensmap

While Georgia and neighboring states roots hard for the Falcons and the Midwest doesn’t seem to take a strong stance towards either team, the Northeast and California are Patriots country for women.

So when it comes to our pick for Super Bowl 51 #imwithher, because she’s usually right. Patriots to win.

Make sure and check out our Super Bowl Ads Report – click here to sign up to receive the report when it is released.