Holiday Box Office Projections: The Hobbit to Gross $15M More Than Industry Predictions

By December 19, 2014 Analysis No Comments
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A breakthrough in social analysis allows Networked Insights to predict the success of a movie with 79 percent accuracy and 30 weeks prior to the movie’s debut. This “always on” predictive model allows studios to build deeper relationships with an audience early in a process to create a higher probability of brand advocates. More importantly, it can track the relative success or failure of a campaign week by week, allowing movie marketers to track the impact of tactics just weeks after implementation.

Here are our predictions for the holiday movie season, with how they compare and contrast to other box office projections. Overall, we predict that The Hobbit will gross $85M on opening weekend, while others (boxoffice.com and hsx.com) have it at $70M. Let’s start with the movies being released this week:

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies: $89M

The last installment of Peter Jackson’s three-part series, The Hobbit will be released in  over 3,850 theaters. The fantasy film, based on the J.R.R. Tolkien novel of the same name, has already seen great performance internationally.

Although there was great interest after the first trailer came out 21 weeks before the release data, fan engagement has plummeted. Still, the movie is on track to do better than its predecessors, which made $84M and $73M, respectively.  Other predictors have the latest iteration of The Hobbit performing at $70M, but we anticipate the film will gross around $19M more than industry projections. Its marketing campaign hasn’t kept pace, however, as projected revenue has dropped since the initial trailer release.

hobbit

Releasing Dec. 17

Into the Woods: $18M

A Disney film that resembles a Grimm Brothers fairy tale, the projected revenue for Into the Woods has remained steady. Industry predictions are not yet available for Into the Woods, but we benchmark its opening weekend performance at $18M.

into the woods

Releasing Dec. 25

Unbroken: $14.5M

Angelina Jolie serves as director and producer for this WWII drama. As with Into the Woods, we’re still waiting for traditional projections. We predict that its opening weekend gross will be a bit lower than Into the Woods, at $14.5M.

unbroken

Releasing Dec. 25

We’ll be keeping a close eye on these and other movies to see how our predictions hold up. If you’re interested in learning more about the methodology that allows us to make accurate long-range forecasts, give us a call to connect with our entertainment team.